MSA’s president, Chris Vickrey, recently launched a blog to provide timely commentary on important market developments. While not necessarily limited to healthcare topics, blog posts to date have focused on legislative initiatives for healthcare reform, with links to key primary documents.
With the election of Scott Brown in yesterday’s special election in Massachusetts, the Republicans have 41 votes in the Senate, enough to block healthcare reform and any other legislation initiative they oppose.
In yesterday’s post, I wrote, “While not likely, it is still possible that the whole healthcare reform effort could collapse.” Today a collapse is looking much more likely. I had assumed that, in the event of a victory by Mr. Brown, the House would move quickly to vote on the Senate version of the healthcare reform bill. Judging by today’s news reports, it appears that the House has no immediate intention to vote on the Senate’s version of the bill, partly because many House Democrats object to specific provisions of the Senate bill, and partly because some House Democrats now seem to fear the political consequences of pushing forward on the bill.
But what alternative do they have? There is some talk of trying to start over and pass much more limited reforms that would have the support of at least some Senate Republicans. Given that, even after dropping the “public option,”the Democrats were unable to get any Republican support for their bill in the Senate, it is not clear how realistic an alternative that would be.
At least some House Democrats appear willing to walk away from healthcare reform. Unless President Obama and Speaker Pelosi can herd these cats toward the effort to pass legislation, the opportunity will, once again, slip away.
In a surprising development, the future of the healthcare bill in Congress will hinge on the outcome of today’s special election in Massachusetts to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, in which the state’s Democratic attorney general, Martha Coakley, is running against Republican State Senator Scott Brown.
Although Massachusetts is often considered a reliably Democratic state, many polls show Mr. Brown ahead in a tight race, in part because popular support for healthcare reform has eroded. If he should win, Republicans would have 40 votes in the Senate, enough to filibuster any healthcare bill, and Mr. Brown has stated his intention to block the legislation. Needless to say, this possibility has sent the Democrats into panic mode. President Obama was in Massachusetts over the weekend to campaign for Ms. Coakley. Instead of highlighting how important a victory by Ms. Coakley would be for healthcare legislation, however, Mr. Obama focused on the need for support in the Senate for a new proposal to tax banks, a telling sign that the White House realizes that healthcare reform is no longer a winning proposition, even in Massachusetts.
If Mr. Brown wins, it is likely that the Democrats will push the House to vote on the healthcare reform bill that passed the Senate, thereby avoiding the need for a vote in the Senate over a revised bill. Given that House Democrats opposed certain provisions in the Senate bill and just barely passed their own version of the bill, getting the House to pass the Senate version of the bill might not be easy. While not likely, it is still possible that the whole healthcare reform effort could collapse.
