In a surprising development, the future of the healthcare bill in Congress will hinge on the outcome of today’s special election in Massachusetts to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, in which the state’s Democratic attorney general, Martha Coakley, is running against Republican State Senator Scott Brown.

Although Massachusetts is often considered a reliably Democratic state, many polls show Mr. Brown ahead in a tight race, in part because popular support for healthcare reform has eroded. If he should win, Republicans would have 40 votes in the Senate, enough to filibuster any healthcare bill, and Mr. Brown has stated his intention to block the legislation. Needless to say, this possibility has sent the Democrats into panic mode. President Obama was in Massachusetts over the weekend to campaign for Ms. Coakley. Instead of highlighting how important a victory by Ms. Coakley would be for healthcare legislation, however, Mr. Obama focused on the need for support in the Senate for a new proposal to tax banks, a telling sign that the White House realizes that healthcare reform is no longer a winning proposition, even in Massachusetts.

If Mr. Brown wins, it is likely that the Democrats will push the House to vote on the healthcare reform bill that passed the Senate, thereby avoiding the need for a vote in the Senate over a revised bill. Given that House Democrats opposed certain provisions in the Senate bill and just barely passed their own version of the bill, getting the House to pass the Senate version of the bill might not be easy. While not likely, it is still possible that the whole healthcare reform effort could collapse.